As we wrap up the first quarter of 2026, markets have delivered a tale of two stories: headline volatility driven by tariffs, geopolitics, and questions around AI spending, contrasted with encouraging signs of improving market breadth beneath the surface.

The S&P 500 is on track to finish Q1 modestly in negative territory (roughly down 4-5% year-to-date as of late March). Yet this pullback is well within historical norms for bull markets. More importantly, February brought clear evidence of healthier participation across stocks and sectors.

As we wrap up a resilient Q4 2025, U.S. equities painted a picture of headline strength amid underlying caution—major indices like the S&P 500, up roughly 15.8% year-to-date through late November, have notched all-time highs near 6,800, fueled by double-digit earnings growth (13.4% blended for Q3) and AI-driven momentum in tech and communication services.

As we wrap up the third quarter, markets have shown remarkable resilience, with U.S. equities hitting new highs and broader participation signaling a healthier rally. From AI-driven optimism to the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since 2024, Q3 has been a dynamic period.

If you glanced at the stock market at the end of Q2 2025, it might seem little has changed. Yet, the quarter was a rollercoaster, with global markets dropping by a 15% in early April due to unexpected U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration.

Stan Weinstein's Stage Analysis method offers a powerful framework that complements momentum-based strategies. Due to the complementary features of stage analysis and momentum investing, much of what you will learn in this blog is used to make communications from Tamarisk Research simpler.

Dual momentum is among the most effective quantitative investment strategies available to financial advisors and their clients. By combining relative strength momentum with absolute momentum, this approach offers a robust framework for making disciplined investment decisions while attempting to manage risk. Here is why Tamarisk Research attempts to incorporate momentum in our investment process.